SAO PAULO, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Brazil's coffee crop is likely to reach 48.83 million bags in 2015 based on historical trends, up 9.6 percent from this year's drought-stricken harvest, according to the government's crop supply agency Conab.
In May, Conab estimated Brazil would produce 44.57 million 60-kg bags this year after hot, dry weather hurt arabica output from the world's biggest coffee belt.
With this year's harvest almost over, Conab is expected to announce a new 2014 crop forecast next week.
Conab said its 2015 outlook was based on trends over the past five years, assuming a 1.6 percent drop in area planted with arabica and a stable area planted with robusta. In January Conab will give its first 2015 forecast based on field research. (Reporting by Gustavo Bonato; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)