For the past two weeks May coffee has closed within a very tight range (1.1980 to 1.2460) while crossing the 40 and 60 day moving averages several times.
Today May closed the week at 1.2295 , down 20 points.
The question is whether the March rally that went as high as 1.35 indicates a change in the downward direction that the market has been experiencing over the past 18 months or is it just a pause before it tries again to break through support around 1.15. The Real has recovered from its lows and the Dollar has lost some of its strength. A weak Real and a strong Dollar have contributed somewhat to lower prices. Therefore the reverse of this trend is bullish.
Also, as we approach the Brazilian winter and the chance of frost in Brazil, the market may not desire to test the recent lows.
So whoever bought at 1.20 or below probably made a good decision