Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—A week of narrow trading and “absurd” claims about the crop

September 18, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Today, December closed just off the low for the day at 181.20, down 365 points. During the last seven days we have traded in a rather narrow range, relatively speaking, of about 550 from 181 to 186.50. But a more interesting fact is that in five out of those seven days, December met heavy resistance in the low 181s. A break out below 180 could suggest a big push south.

Once again, in order to show you how fickle the market is, I am attaching an article which indicates how different Brazilian organizations feel about the current production forecast. A report by Market Talk on industry groups slamming reports about the outlook of the coffee crop as “absurd, incoherent and reckless.”

Read the Sept. 17, 2014 article, “DJ Brazil Coffee-Crop Outlook Slammed By Industry Group.”

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—December ends at a high for the day

September 17, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Today we had one of the smallest trading ranges of the past several months. December closed down 0.40, with a trading range of only 335 points. For most of the day, the market tried to break through 183.50, but met some solid resistance. It was not until the last 15 minutes that December zoomed to the high of the day of 186.45 at 1:29 p.m. The settlement was 184.5, 195 points off the high. So not too much happened today in the coffee market.

Read the Sept. 11, 2014 Thomson Reuters article, “Brazil sees 2015 coffee crop of 48.83 million bags.”

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—Predictions about low yield skyrocket prices

September 16, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Today the December coffee contract opened down and tried to break through $1.81, where it had found support in three out of the past four days. At about 9:30 a.m., about three quarters of an hour before the attached article was released, the market moved quickly upwards. It climbed 690 points in 75 minutes, up to 187.95, probably hitting several buy stops on the way up. (Dare we say insider information.) Then traders started to digest the report and determined maybe the situation is not as bad as anticipated. December closed up 305 points at 185.25. Maybe tomorrow we will try to break through 1.81 again.

This Sept. 16, 2014 report released on the Dow Jones Newswire about the gain by arabica-coffee futures after predictions about the low yield in Brazil. “Brazil’s worst drought in decades raised worries about the size and quality of production this year, sending prices to a more than two-year high.”

Read the “DJ Arabica-Coffee Future Gain After Brazilian Forecast” article from the Dow Jones Newswire.

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—A strong dollar and low prices creates fluctuates the market

September 11, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Today was a day of correction after yesterday’s big fall.  December closed up 420 points at $1.8540. In many past days, we may have thought of 420 points as big move. Today it is only 61 percent of the average daily trading range. Yesterday I mentioned the strong dollar and weak Brazilian real and the Colombian peso. A strong dollar and/or a weak currency from a coffee growing country can influence the market. In the past, we have seen some support in the $1.85 range. Maybe the strong dollar will help to push the market lower.

Read the Sept. 11, 2014 article published on the Dow Jones Newswire revealing, “Coffee prices rose as some bearish traders returned to the market as buyers to lock in gains after prices hit a one-month low a day earlier…Still, prices are likely to resume their declines amid pressure from a stronger dollar.”

Read the “DJ Cotton Nears 2-Month High on Lower Production Forecast” published Sept. 11, 2014 on the Dow Jones Newswire.

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—Colombia’s coffee crop to have a bumper year.

September 9, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each  cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Today, December closed down another 185 points at $1.9260. December is now down four out of the past five days and down 17.35 for the month.  We are now entering a range where December has met some support since late July. The market has tried to break through 1.87 to 1.85, but has met some good support.

The announcement by Colombia that it’s production in August was the highest since 1956, at 1.2 M 60 kilo bags, may convince the bulls that coffee is overpriced. To support the bulls position, the lack of rain now is good for the harvest in Brazil, but could spell problems for the flowering in the next few months. Read the report from Sept. 9, 2014 published by Dow Jones that quotes the National Federation of Coffee Growers: “Colombia’s coffee crop is set to have a bumper year.”

Read the Market Talk article, “DJ Colombia Coffee Growers to Capitalize on Higher Prices.”