Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—Dry Brazil weather stays dry, creates favorable conditions for harvest

September 24, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

With the Brazilian weather staying dry, which is good for the harvest, the bulls seem to be exerting their muscle. Yesterday, the December coffee contract closed up 150 points, but was nearly 400 points higher at midday. Today the market started fairly flat. But around 9:45 a.m., strong buying came to the market, which rose about 800 points in less than 15 minutes to a high of 189.90 points. The market closed up 820 points at $1.8910.

A Sept. 24, 2014 report by Meteorlogix, which predicts “mostly favorable conditions for harvest during the next five days. More rain will be needed during the coming months to support flowering of the new crop.” Although this weather report indicates dry weather for the next five days, rain early next week, if in great quantities, could make the market turn around. If the weather continues to be dry, we will see much higher prices.

Read the Sept. 24, 2014 article, “SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS.”

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—Bull and bear behavior move market up and down

September 19, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Yesterday, December closed down 320 points at $1.78 even. To the best of my knowledge, there was no breaking news. But from 8:30 to 9 a.m., December dropped 450 points to 1.78 (about 3,000 lots traded). It then continued down to the low for the day of 176.40. This move downward was a breakthrough of the support level at 1.81. The next support level is 1.75.

However, with no more negative (bullish) news, we could see the market quickly drop below 1.60. Monday could be a small up day or a dramatic down day, depending on where the bears looking. Now I feel I am out on a limb and the saw is between me and the tree. Not good! We will see what happens.

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—A week of narrow trading and “absurd” claims about the crop

September 18, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Today, December closed just off the low for the day at 181.20, down 365 points. During the last seven days we have traded in a rather narrow range, relatively speaking, of about 550 from 181 to 186.50. But a more interesting fact is that in five out of those seven days, December met heavy resistance in the low 181s. A break out below 180 could suggest a big push south.

Once again, in order to show you how fickle the market is, I am attaching an article which indicates how different Brazilian organizations feel about the current production forecast. A report by Market Talk on industry groups slamming reports about the outlook of the coffee crop as “absurd, incoherent and reckless.”

Read the Sept. 17, 2014 article, “DJ Brazil Coffee-Crop Outlook Slammed By Industry Group.”

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—What is driving the market down?

September 10, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Today was a bit exciting. (Allow me a little humor.) December closed down 11.35 points at $1.8125. It looks like December traded a few hundred lots in each five-minute period throughout the day, but from 1:20 p.m. to 1:25 p.m., five minutes before the close, December traded 2,146 lots, which sent December down 280 points and set a low for the day.

I am sure the December hit several sell stops in that slide. So, what is driving the market down? Clearly, some of the push down is from people who think the coffee supply this year and next year will be satisfactory to meet the needs of the market place. But also the strength of the dollar in relation to the Brazilian Real and the Colombian Peso affect the coffee market, because the coffee is traded in dollars. After the big drop today and the slide this month, we could see a correction tomorrow.