Update – September 2015

July 23, 2015

Good day

On Friday the September coffee contract closed nearly unchanged at 1.2840 down 45 points.  The contract is now 475 points off its low and has now developed two spinning top candle sticks in a row .  The market is looking for direction.

I have attached a rather detailed market report.  Although the large amounts of shorts suggest the opportunity for a market rally as the traders cover their shorts, there are other indications that the market will go down.

The market remains below the 40 and 60 day moving averages and the technical tread is still down.  There are also some reports that the current crop in Brazil after the drought is bigger than expected, thus putting additional pressure on the market.

July 14, 2015

Hi Folks

Today September coffee closed up 255 points at 1.2880.

I am attaching a Dow Jones article about the coffee market.  It says, and I agree, that the market looks like it is building a base in the range of 1.25 to 1.30.  The financial situation in Greece has some influence on the market as well as the weather in Vietnam and Brazil, and values of the Dollar and the Real,  but all of these factors seem to be built into today’s market which is still four to six cents below the 40 and 60 moving averages respectively.

Although the chance of frost in Brazil is still a possibility, although remote, the weather forecast for the next few weeks is for normal temperatures.

Update-September Report

July 7, 2015

Today, September dropped another 225 points to close at 1.2515.  This drop means that September has gone down five out of six of the last trading days and the close is the lowest since December 2013.  Included in this decline was the largest drop since May 21.

I have attached a coffee report, although it is dated July 1, it does explain some of the reasons for the decline.  I have also been hearing that there are/were a lot of sell stops between 1.30 and 1.25 which have accentuated the decline.

Back in Nov/Dec 2013 there was September bottomed in this area.  Therefore we could see some good support in the 1.25 area.

If we break through 1.25, we could see further significant declines; however, maybe not until the threat of frost in Brazil is past.  The forecast is for normal to above normal temperatures in southern Brazil for the next 8-14 days.

 

Update-September Report

July 7, 2015

 

For the past 13 trading days September has closed very close to the range of 1.30 to 1.35 with most of the trades in the 1.30 to 1.3250 range.  Once again today September tried to go lower through 1.30, but at 12:50 for five minutes someone bought over 1,200 lots and pushed the market up 300 points.  Although the settlement for September was at 1.3240 unchanged from yesterday, the last tic was up 190 points.

 

Although the dollar was up most of yesterday, it closed lower than the previous four sessions.  Today the dollar closed up.  The attached report from yesterday comments about the influence of the strong dollar.

 

 

 

 

 

Update-September Report

July 1, 2015

For the past 13 trading days September has closed very close to the range of 1.30 to 1.35 with most of the trades in the 1.30 to 1.3250 range.  Once again today September tried to go lower through 1.30, but at 12:50 for five minutes someone bought over 1,200 lots and pushed the market up 300 points.  Although the settlement for September was at 1.3240 unchanged from yesterday, the last tic was up 190 points.

Although the dollar was up most of yesterday, it closed lower than the previous four sessions.  Today the dollar closed up.  The attached report from yesterday comments about the influence of the strong dollar.

 

 

September Report

June 23, 2015

Today, the September coffee contract was up 240 points at 1.3250.  The July contract is in the process of liquidation, so September is now the current month.  Today is the sixth day in a row that the contract has traded generally between 1.30 and 1.325.  However, today over 1,500 lots were traded in the last ten minutes.  This high volume caused September to reach its high for the day and then drop back 100 points.

The attached report is about Vietnam coffee.  It claims that the country maybe “swimming” in coffee.  The London market was up 1.4% in sympathy with New York.  When Vietnam tries to sell this coffee we could see a bit of a sell off in the London Market

Update-July Report

June 12, 2015

Good Afternoon

After nine out of ten up days with a climb of over 1200 points the July coffee contract finally corrected to close at 132.00, down 445 points.  Although July only had a trading range of 100 point in the last ten minutes, the period recorded the highest volume for any other ten minute period during the day.  Someone was trying to push down and there was good support.  Will the support hold??

This downward activity is all very interesting since according to the attached Reuters report Brazil forecasts a smaller crop next year than this year.  Traditionally, the Brazilian government underestimates the crop in order not to encourage selling by over estimating the crop.  Also, I have no idea how next year’s crop can be estimated if they have not finished harvesting this year’s crop.  But it does appear, at least for yesterday (a down day) and today this report is being ignored.

This year’s crop is less than 50% harvested and at present there is only speculation about its size.

 

Update-July Report

June 4, 2015

Good Afternoon

Today was the fourth day in a row that the July coffee contract has closed up.  The closing price is 1.3430, up 160 points.

I wanted to share with you the attached technical report which says that the long term and mid-term prospects are bearish, but for the short term  we could see some more price increases.  The report is worth reading.

Once again we are coming into the period of potential frost in Brazil and traders could be buying a little protection.

 

Update-July Report

June 2, 2015

Good afternoon Folks

Today July closed up 290 points at 1.3270.

As you can see from the attached report industry professionals  continue to talk about the effect of the dollar on the desire of coffee producers(growers), especially in Brazil, to sell coffee.  Today the dollar softened and the Brazilian Real strengthened and the coffee market went up.

But the other article suggests that next year’s Brazilian crop could be a very big one; therefore, the market could go down.  But first we will have to get through the Brazilian winter.  If we get through the winter without a frost and there is a good flowering in four months, we could see lower prices.

 

Update-July Report

June 1, 2015

Good Afternoon

After a 290 point drop in the July contract on Tuesday July closed today up only 100 points for the day and 210 points for the last three days at 1.2650.

For the past three days July has tried to get through 1.27, but ran into resistance.  All three days have had small trading ranges with the only significance that the low for each day was higher than the previous day.

I have attached a coffee report from Dow Jones from yesterday.  On Tuesday July came very close its lowest low which was in November of 2013.  We have had quite a ride since then.

We are now coming into Brazil’s frost season which will encourage buying and/or reduce selling.

Have a good weekend