I apologize for not writing to you sooner. I was at a show which was quite successful and on vacation.
Since we have now passed the first notice day for the December coffee contract, I will talk about the March contract. Before this week the March 2016 coffee contract had five out of six down days. The only up day was November 2 for 40 points. This week Monday was a 240 point reversal, but yesterday was March down and so far this morning it is down. At present March is at its low for the day at 1.17 down 130 points and trying to go lower. As we go through the liquidation of December which still has an open interest of 18,000 lots the downward trend could continue. By the way March’s open interest is 102,000, over five times greater that December. The falling of March could be due more to the liquidation of December rather than fundamentals. Since there are more shorts than longs in December as they switch to March they buy December and sell March.
By the way I have seen various rain fall predictions for the coffee growing areas of Brazil. Some suggest heavier than normal rain fall. Other reports indicate that more rain is needed. Uncertainty causes volatility.
I have attached three articles. The first article is about the lack of rain in the Robusta coffee growing areas of Brazil. The second article discusses the Robusta crop reports which vary widely from deficits to surpluses. The third article is about Keurig and its lack of success with 2.0 and Kold which process a very expensive product (about $2 per serving).