To my Jewish friends, Happy Hanukkah, this sixth day of Hanukkah!
To my Christian friends, Merry Christmas!
And to everyone, a Happy and Prosperous New Year!!
Today is the seventh day that the March coffee contract has traded generally above both the 60 and 40 day moving averages. Currently, March is at 1.25, down 135 points. For the past six days March has tried to close above 1.2750 without success or close below 1.2400 without success. A 350 point trading range for six days is very narrow when you consider the volatility that we have seen throughout 2015 when the range has risen has high as 550 on average for 14 day period.
Generally, trading above or below the 40 or 60 day moving averages for several days indicates a trend in that direction. However, back in October March was above these averages for ten trading days and then fell below the averages for over a month.
I have attached four reports: a technical analysis, funds going short, and two reports about Vietnam and the Robusta market. The Vietnam report indicates that Vietnam, although holding back awaiting higher prices, has a lot of coffee to sell.
While I type March heads to the cellar, down 475 points at 1.2160. This price is not as low as Tuesday’s price where the low was 1.2100. Let us see where we close.