On Friday March coffee closed up 70 points at 1.1900. This up tic represented the first up tic close in seven days. The forty day moving average is at 1.2182. It has been trending down for a few weeks after having flat lined for the month of November. The sixty day moving average is at 1.2436 and has flat lined for the past four weeks. For nearly the past two months March has traded in a rather narrow range of approximately 1.21 +/- 600 points. A close above 1.2750 or below 1.550 would suggest a continued move outside of the above stated trading range. The dollar remains strong and the Brazilian Real remains weak. The weather in Brazil although not perfect it is not terribly unfavorable. All things considered the fundamentals seem to be neutral or have no major influence on the market. If there is bearish sign, the Brazilian agriculture industry, Conab, just increased its coffee crop report for 2015 from 42.1 to 43.2 million bags. Brazil produced 45.6 bags in 2014.
Speaking of coffee production I have attached the International Coffee Organization’s crop report for each country from 1990 to 2014/15.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.