Green Coffee Update – October 25, 2016

October 25, 2016

Good morning

This morning December coffee is up again.  The market now is at 1.6020 up 230 points.  On September 22nd the market hit a high of 1.6090, but retreated to close at 1.5525.  it continued down until October 6th when it closed at 1.4640.  so in the past 19 days the market has gone up about 1400 points after retreating an equal amount.  The trend is upwards, but the market continuously takes dips to get there.

The Dollar is up, but so is the Brazilian Real.  Therefore, currency has little to do with market movement.

I have attached a report from Morgan Stanley and a report that shows how the longs and shorts have changed over the past few months

Green Coffee Report-October 03, 2016

October 4, 2016

Today, December coffee closed down 400 points at 1.4755 which is the lowest close since August 31st and the first close below the 40 and 60 day moving averages since August 24th.

I have attached a bearish coffee report which is interesting reading for the technicians.

Green Coffee Report-September 14, 2016

September 16, 2016

Good Morning Folks

After being relatively unchanged on Monday, December coffee had an outside trading day yesterday, meaning that the high was higher and the low was lower than Monday.  Yesterday December closed down 250 points at 1.4840.

Today December is forming a spinning top and is unchanged, but has had a trading range of only 210 points.

Today Vietnam has announced that year to date sales were up 39.8% over last month and August sales were up 9.2%.

I have attached two articles.   One article about the Robusta market.  The second is a technical analysis of the overall market.

I think that I need a cup of coffee!!!

Have a good day!!

Green Coffee Report-September 12, 2016

September 12, 2016

Good morning

After nine days straight up the December coffee contract made a spinning top (shows market indecision) on Thursday and then went down 375 points on Friday to close at 1.5115.

A 375 point move down after a nine day rise of over 1200 points is not unusual.  What was unusual is the opening this morning, a gap down of 255 points on the opening at 4:15 with 1149 lots being traded.  Currently September is up slightly to 1.4950.

The Dollar is fairly steady, but the Brazilian Real is showing some weakening which could be part of the reason for the December fall.  Also, we are nearing the end of the possible frost period for Brazil.  On the other hand Brazil does need some rain to help with flowering.  As of now the weather reports are suggesting below normal or normal rainfall.  Not good!

I hope that everyone has a great Monday and week!!

Green Coffee Report-September 2, 2016

September 9, 2016

Good Afternoon

September coffee closed today at 1.5140, unchanged on the day.  This close marked 11 out of 12 days that the market closed up or flat.  It is up over 1300 points since August 18.

I have attached several articles  about Brazilian coffee, the market in general, and Coca Cola entering the cold brew market.  The Brazilian Real and the Dollar have not materially changed over this time.  The article to which the attach link below directs you could be the reason for the market rise, but I do not think so..  Many traders are perplexed by the big upward movement.

Green Coffee Report-August 29, 2016

August 29, 2016

Good Morning

Last Friday December coffee closed at 1.4485 up 40 points.  But during the day it rose to 1.4760 where for the past 3 out of days it has met resistance.

This morning, although December open down 35, currently it is up 35 at 1.4510.

I have attached four articles.  Three relate to Vietnam whose sales this year are up 38% this year over last although July was flat.  The fourth article is about the overall market.  It indicates that there is some early flowering in Brazil which could be problematic if there is not any rain soon.  However, the person quoted in the article is bearish on the market because he feels that there is plenty of coffee throughout the  world.

Green Coffee Update-August 24, 2016

August 24, 2016

Good Afternoon

Today December coffee closed down 415 points at 1.4310.  This close was a dramatic reversal after going up about 900 points in the five days.

At 12:30 for a 5 minute period the volume was over 2,200 lots.  Normally the volume during a five minute period is about 150 lots.  During this period December dropped 185 points to 1.4295.  This move is interesting in three ways.  It was based on big volume, the attached report is bullish on Robustas and there was no major change in relationship of Dollar and Real

Green Coffee Report-August 18, 2016

August 19, 2016

Good Afternoon

Today December Coffee rebounded after  going down sixteen out of the past twenty days.

By 1:23 December had dropped to 1.3490.  In the final seven minutes it rose to 1.3895, up 405.  December closed at 1.3815, up 310 points on less than extraordinary volume.  The attached article suggests that there is enough coffee in the supply chain in spite of the low shipments from Colombia due to a truckers strike and low shipments from Brazil.


Green Coffee Report-August 11, 2016

August 11, 2016

Good Afternoon

Today coffee closed up down again for the fifth day in a row at 1.3770, down 95 points, and staying well below 1.40, the previous support level.

The Dollar is remaining relatively flat while the Real is getting stronger which is bullish, but the market falls slightly.

I have attached four articles about the overall market and Brazil exports.  The article by Morgan Stanley is good and describes activity yesterday

Green Coffee Report-August 10, 2016

August 11, 2016

Good Afternoon

Today September finally did what it  has been trying to do 14 working days.  It broke below 1.40 and stayed there.  September closed at 1.3865, down 245 points.  September closed just 10 points from its low.

Although the dollar was down and the Real was up, both of which are bullish for coffee, the market closed down.  It was a year ago that the Real was in its current trading range and the coffee market was also around 1.40.

The weather is good.  No sign of cold weather for the next 10 days.

We will see what happens tomorrow, but maybe we have seen the highs for the summer