Update-September Report

July 1, 2015

For the past 13 trading days September has closed very close to the range of 1.30 to 1.35 with most of the trades in the 1.30 to 1.3250 range.  Once again today September tried to go lower through 1.30, but at 12:50 for five minutes someone bought over 1,200 lots and pushed the market up 300 points.  Although the settlement for September was at 1.3240 unchanged from yesterday, the last tic was up 190 points.

Although the dollar was up most of yesterday, it closed lower than the previous four sessions.  Today the dollar closed up.  The attached report from yesterday comments about the influence of the strong dollar.

 

 

September Report

June 23, 2015

Today, the September coffee contract was up 240 points at 1.3250.  The July contract is in the process of liquidation, so September is now the current month.  Today is the sixth day in a row that the contract has traded generally between 1.30 and 1.325.  However, today over 1,500 lots were traded in the last ten minutes.  This high volume caused September to reach its high for the day and then drop back 100 points.

The attached report is about Vietnam coffee.  It claims that the country maybe “swimming” in coffee.  The London market was up 1.4% in sympathy with New York.  When Vietnam tries to sell this coffee we could see a bit of a sell off in the London Market

Update-July Report

June 1, 2015

Good Afternoon

After a 290 point drop in the July contract on Tuesday July closed today up only 100 points for the day and 210 points for the last three days at 1.2650.

For the past three days July has tried to get through 1.27, but ran into resistance.  All three days have had small trading ranges with the only significance that the low for each day was higher than the previous day.

I have attached a coffee report from Dow Jones from yesterday.  On Tuesday July came very close its lowest low which was in November of 2013.  We have had quite a ride since then.

We are now coming into Brazil’s frost season which will encourage buying and/or reduce selling.

Have a good weekend

July Report

May 21, 2015

Good Afternoon

Three days ago when July closed at 143.15 I said that since July had climbed 1300 points it was probably time for a correction.  Boy, have we had a correction.

With July down 755 points today and a close below 1.30 at 128.45 we have had a very definite correction.  A close well below the previous support level of 1.30 suggests that we could go lower.  On the other hand do I dare to suggest a correction upward tomorrow.  In the past two months since the big drop from the 1.65 area to the 1.35 area July has seen some very big reversals.

I am attaching two articles – one that makes some general comments and states that demand still is expected to exceed supply and the second suggests that we could easily go to 1.20.

Click Here for Articles

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—Weather patterns determine the areas ready to flower

September 25, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

At 7:50 a.m., December dropped 300 points in three minutes and in less than one-half hour it was down more than 800 points. A weather report probably initiated the fall. The rain came and the market turned downward quickly. Will the rain continue????

A report by World Weather to learn which Brazil crop areas are too dry and which will ones are likely to flower. “A near-daily scattering of showers and thunderstorms will occur in these more important coffee areas (northeastern Sao Paulo to Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro) during the weekend and through most of next week.”

Read the Sept. 25, 2014 Brazil Coffee Weather report, “Greater Rain In Sao Paulo Today.”

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—Dry Brazil weather stays dry, creates favorable conditions for harvest

September 24, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

With the Brazilian weather staying dry, which is good for the harvest, the bulls seem to be exerting their muscle. Yesterday, the December coffee contract closed up 150 points, but was nearly 400 points higher at midday. Today the market started fairly flat. But around 9:45 a.m., strong buying came to the market, which rose about 800 points in less than 15 minutes to a high of 189.90 points. The market closed up 820 points at $1.8910.

A Sept. 24, 2014 report by Meteorlogix, which predicts “mostly favorable conditions for harvest during the next five days. More rain will be needed during the coming months to support flowering of the new crop.” Although this weather report indicates dry weather for the next five days, rain early next week, if in great quantities, could make the market turn around. If the weather continues to be dry, we will see much higher prices.

Read the Sept. 24, 2014 article, “SAO PAULO AND MINAS GERAIS.”

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—Bull and bear behavior move market up and down

September 19, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Yesterday, December closed down 320 points at $1.78 even. To the best of my knowledge, there was no breaking news. But from 8:30 to 9 a.m., December dropped 450 points to 1.78 (about 3,000 lots traded). It then continued down to the low for the day of 176.40. This move downward was a breakthrough of the support level at 1.81. The next support level is 1.75.

However, with no more negative (bullish) news, we could see the market quickly drop below 1.60. Monday could be a small up day or a dramatic down day, depending on where the bears looking. Now I feel I am out on a limb and the saw is between me and the tree. Not good! We will see what happens.

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—A week of narrow trading and “absurd” claims about the crop

September 18, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Today, December closed just off the low for the day at 181.20, down 365 points. During the last seven days we have traded in a rather narrow range, relatively speaking, of about 550 from 181 to 186.50. But a more interesting fact is that in five out of those seven days, December met heavy resistance in the low 181s. A break out below 180 could suggest a big push south.

Once again, in order to show you how fickle the market is, I am attaching an article which indicates how different Brazilian organizations feel about the current production forecast. A report by Market Talk on industry groups slamming reports about the outlook of the coffee crop as “absurd, incoherent and reckless.”

Read the Sept. 17, 2014 article, “DJ Brazil Coffee-Crop Outlook Slammed By Industry Group.”

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—December ends at a high for the day

September 17, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Today we had one of the smallest trading ranges of the past several months. December closed down 0.40, with a trading range of only 335 points. For most of the day, the market tried to break through 183.50, but met some solid resistance. It was not until the last 15 minutes that December zoomed to the high of the day of 186.45 at 1:29 p.m. The settlement was 184.5, 195 points off the high. So not too much happened today in the coffee market.

Read the Sept. 11, 2014 Thomson Reuters article, “Brazil sees 2015 coffee crop of 48.83 million bags.”

Today’s Yield from the Coffee Field—Predictions about low yield skyrocket prices

September 16, 2014

CEO of Excelso Coffee, Ed Field, reveals all the factors that go into each perfect cup of Field Coffee and Tea.

Today the December coffee contract opened down and tried to break through $1.81, where it had found support in three out of the past four days. At about 9:30 a.m., about three quarters of an hour before the attached article was released, the market moved quickly upwards. It climbed 690 points in 75 minutes, up to 187.95, probably hitting several buy stops on the way up. (Dare we say insider information.) Then traders started to digest the report and determined maybe the situation is not as bad as anticipated. December closed up 305 points at 185.25. Maybe tomorrow we will try to break through 1.81 again.

This Sept. 16, 2014 report released on the Dow Jones Newswire about the gain by arabica-coffee futures after predictions about the low yield in Brazil. “Brazil’s worst drought in decades raised worries about the size and quality of production this year, sending prices to a more than two-year high.”

Read the “DJ Arabica-Coffee Future Gain After Brazilian Forecast” article from the Dow Jones Newswire.